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Elon Musk once promised that driverless Tesla robotaxis would be on the road “next year” — a claim he first made in 2019. That year came and went, as did several others, without a fleet of autonomous Teslas. Nevertheless, the promises kept coming. In January 2024, Musk even claimed there would be “over a million robotaxis” by the following year.
While that milestone is still far off, a small pilot program has finally launched in Austin, Texas. On Sunday, Tesla began operating a limited number of self-driving vehicles — reportedly 10 to 12 — in a confined service area. Each ride costs a flat fee of $4.20, and while the vehicles are being remotely monitored, a human sits in the passenger seat to ensure safety.
Meanwhile, competitors like Waymo have forged ahead, deploying robotaxis in multiple U.S. cities and reaching over 10 million paid rides. Tesla faces both technological and regulatory challenges, alongside waning sales linked to political backlash and increased EV competition.
Musk’s robotaxi rollout relies on Tesla's camera-only vision system, a simpler and less costly setup than rivals like Waymo, which use lidar and radar. Musk believes Tesla’s advantage lies in scalability, especially if existing Tesla owners can one day turn their vehicles into robotaxis via software updates — a kind of “Airbnb for cars.”
Despite past exaggerations — from overstating Full Self-Driving capabilities to making unsubstantiated claims about taking Tesla private — Musk remains confident. He envisions rapid expansion, potentially turning every Tesla on the road into a revenue-generating autonomous cab.
Analysts are mixed. Some, like Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein, suggest widespread public access won’t happen before 2028. Others, like Wedbush's Dan Ives, believe Musk might succeed this time thanks to Tesla's proven ability to scale quickly.
For now, the Austin pilot marks a modest but potentially pivotal moment in Tesla’s robotaxi journey.
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